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Video Transcription - Page 3
"Where Next for Lehman?"
Host: Interesting! Okay let’s talk a little bit more about those two trends, what’s happening with the oil..and also what’s happening with the dollar you think they’ll always going to go back sinking notwithstanding this recovery we’ve had and the oil’s going to go well back above a hundred…why?
Todd G. Everts: We’ll start with oil. First there’s this deleveraging effect. The speculators… and I don’t have any problem with speculation, I don’t have any problem with the speculators driving up the price of oil or taking their capital way and the price of oil going down, the fact is that these speculators are finding it harder to leverage because the banks have their own credit problems and they’re just not going to lend for the possibility of the failure of one of these speculators. So with less capital you see where there’s a hurricane coming you see where OPEC is saying we’re going to cut output and the price of oil still falls? Well that’s because the speculators don’t have access to the leverage which would drive it up. All we need is another major political event or a catastrophic event or terrorism event and we’ll see oil rise dramatically and the amount of consumption is going to continue to edge oil prices back up, commodity prices back up and the outflow of money from the US is going to continue to drive the US dollar down over the long term.

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