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Video Transcription - Page 3

"Where Next for Lehman?"

Todd G. Everts: We represent hedge fund managers, funds of funds, private equity, real estate investment trust and these managers’ time is best spent managing money whether that’s in New York, London, Switzerland, wherever they are. But they want to raise money from other market so we find a Brazilian institutional investor might understand that there’s an opportunity in Korea but they don’t know how to allocate so we bring those 2 parties together. But we are finding it this year it’s a little bit more difficult because institutional investors in their own market are judged by their either clients or their shareholders of their board in their own currency and their own local interest rate their last reticent to move money into other markets because if the other market or the other investment doesn’t perform well then there is possibly an exponential effect in their local market. So everyone in these transactions they might want to think of doing could be a career-ender so it’s much easier for them to stay plain vanilla and stay at home. But that’ll change overtime. The price of oil will definitely go back above a hundred, the dollar will continue to have a steady decline and money will follow emerging markets and opportunities.

Host: Interesting! Okay let’s talk a little bit more about those two trends, what’s happening with the oil..and also what’s happening with the dollar you think they’ll always going to go back sinking notwithstanding this recovery we’ve had and the oil’s going to go well back above a hundred…why?

Todd G. Everts: We’ll start with oil. First there’s this deleveraging effect. The speculators… and I don’t have any problem with speculation, I don’t have any problem with the speculators driving up the price of oil or taking their capital way and the price of oil going down, the fact is that these speculators are finding it harder to leverage because the banks have their own credit problems and they’re just not going to lend for the possibility of the failure of one of these speculators. So with less capital you see where there’s a hurricane coming you see where OPEC is saying we’re going to cut output and the price of oil still falls? Well that’s because the speculators don’t have access to the leverage which would drive it up. All we need is another major political event or a catastrophic event or terrorism event and we’ll see oil rise dramatically and the amount of consumption is going to continue to edge oil prices back up, commodity prices back up and the outflow of money from the US is going to continue to drive the US dollar down over the long term.

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