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Video Transcription - Page 2

"Japan Banks Have Little Subprime Exposure"

Patrick Mohr: I think you have a very important point which is a major positive for Japan which is that, you know, in the aftermath of a credit bubble, cash is king…and that’s one thing that Japanese corporations, Japanese households have – is cash…so the corporate and household balance sheets are much better than the West at this time. I think that they will go out and buy growth and this is the perfect time for them to do it. We are seeing signs already..some of the insurance companies for example and even some of the banks going out to buy growth so I think we’re going to see more of that and I think that’s a positive development.

Host 1: : Yeah. What about you, Todd…come in on this conversation…what’s your outlook for the Japanese market?

Todd G. Everts: Well clearly, having a strong balance sheet is going to help the Japanese institutions and the Japanese market take advantage of opportunities. The Japanese has certainly learned at many different periods over the last few decades to come into the market at the right time versus at the top. It’s interesting that they’ve stayed on the side lines for so long. My quick question for Patrick is, do you see the carry trade continuing and you see having that quite an uplift on the yen because over the last couple of days we saw a flight to the US dollar but probably over the next quarters we’re going to see a flight away from the dollar because the Fed is taking on so many more liabilities.

Patrick Mohr: Sure, well it’s a good question… its certainly in the discussions of my clients that comes up a lot and I think one of the things that you have to…I think that it will weaken going forward because if you look at just a simple comparison of real rates, certainly the yen carry trade is not the only carry trade in town anymore…even..I mean the dollar carry trade even looks from a real rare perspective even more attractive. So I think it could weaken but only time will tell. So in the short term we’re still looking for some yen strength.

Host 3: Patrick, how concerned are you about the political insurgency in Japan. We’ve got the possibility of snap elections, they’re coming up. Yes we’ve got all these global macro-economic headwinds coming out of-emanating from the US but what sort of domestic pressures could be brought to market...

Patrick Mohr: You know to be honest I don’t think that market players are focusing on Japanese domestic politics at all at the moment. We’re still an environment where foreign investors pretty much control the tempo of this market and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. All eyes are on the financial crisis…the systemic risk, what the central banks are doing, how quickly can Pulson react?, can the US come up with a comprehensive package?. You know while we are in the state of administrative transition these are the questions that the markets are focusing on. I’ve been speaking to a lot of clients the last few days, none of them are interested in talking about Japanese politics.

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